The "Big Lie," Teardowns and District 205 Overcrowding

"If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State." - Joseph Goebbels

The above is dated January, 12 1941. Goebbels accuses Churchill of using the "big lie" technique. In satirical style, he accuses the British of using the method of which Goebbels himself was master. Source

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Figures often beguile me, particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics." Autobiography of Mark Twain

Elected officials, if "figures" beguile you, perhaps you should not weigh in on an analysis that is beyond your intellectual capacity. Mark Twain seemed to understand his limitations.

More on "damned lies"

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The following is reprinted without permission from the author but is part of the Public Record of the September 6, 2005 Elmhurst City Council Meeting.

PUBLIC SCHOOL IMPACT FEES – WHY THE NUMBERS ARE WRONG

The City Attorney’s opinion does not find that the proposed impact fee proposal is illegal in itself. It simply finds that there has not been a demonstrated impact that needs to be addressed. In other words, the opinion says: “Whether it’s legal depends upon what the numbers are.”

Unfortunately, there are three big problems with the numbers.

First, the numbers provided only count households with school age children. It should have counted the actual numbers of children. Since the new homes have 4 – 6 bedrooms, they hold more kids. That’s one of the reasons why most folks buy newer houses: a bigger house for a bigger family.

Second, the new homes are actually counted in both categories – new homes and existing homes. Mr. Trosien admitted that new homes were not taken out of the transfer declaration records to determine “existing homes.” In other words, they counted the new homes in both categories. But when you completely separate the new and existing homes, particularly for the year 2000 demo permits, the disparity between school attendance generated by new and existing homes starts to widen. Which makes the next point very important.

The numbers did not include enough years to capture the enrollment of pre-school aged children. They should have gone back to 1998 or 1997 to do so.

The new homes category counted demolition permits issues in 2000 and the years after than. However, as we know, many of the new homes corresponding to these demo permits were not sold until 2001, 2002 or even 2003. All of the one-year-olds, most two-year-olds, and many three-year-olds moving into those homes would not be registering for kindergarten by 2004. In addition, because of the several private kindergartens in Elmhurst, first grade enrollment is a better indicator of public school enrollment. So you need to look at three more years of demo permits to determine the real impact on public school attendance.

Note that the numbers start to diverge in 2000. What would the numbers be if you kept going back to demo permits issued in 1997? And what if you counted numbers of children, not just households? And what if you took out the double counting of the new homes? As Mr. Trosien said “you have to cut it off somewhere.” Unfortunately, the numbers were cut off before they showed the real impact of new home construction on public school attendance.

WHY THE IMPACT FEE IS LESS EXPENSIVE FOR THE CITY THAN THE “LAND SALE”

The “land sale” is really a loan, since the City cannot sell the property to get its money back. So the City is loaning the School Board $1.5 million for several years. What is the cost to the City? Well, first there is the ten years of interest - the School Board will not pay any. But there is also the fact that the City cannot use that money until it is repaid. The City must either tax more or to do without something.

On the other hand, the Impact Fee is far less expensive for the City. THE IMPACT FEES DON’T COME OUT OF THE CITY’S FUNDS. It is a fee the City collects for the School

Damned lie? or Damn right?

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Never forget.
September 11, 2001